Organisations today face dynamic challenges marked by complexity, uncertainty, risk, interconnectedness and speed of change resulting from globalisation, cultural diversity, climate change, technological advances, informed customer demands and relentless innovation. Anticipating the future in this volatile environment calls for more than systematic analysis, it demands creativity, insight and intuition. Scenarios - stories about possible futures, combine these elements into a foundation for robust strategies. The test of a good scenario is not whether it portrays the future accurately but whether it enables an organisation to learn and adapt.

The roles and responsibilities over the coming five years will largely be shaped by already visible or just emerging trends.

Specific Drivers of Change
• security versus traditional rights/freedoms
• mobility – flexible, seamless services across borders
• globalisation – accountability, participation, global value chains, labour force,
• social dynamics – differentiated life models
• urbanisation
• the knowledge economy - changing needs for skills and new business opportunities
• resource availability – energy, water, clean air

Scenario 1
• low growth economy
• High levels of alienation and social disruption
• unstable antagonistic Governments
Scenario 2
• fast changing demographics due to flight of youth
• strong stable Governments
• demanding customers
Scenario 3
• high growth economy
• a major pandemic